Labour's EU reset faces Reform election threat

The news

Labour suffered heavy losses in England's local elections, with over 5,000 council seats contested. Reform UK gained more than 1,350 seats and control of 13 councils, while Labour lost control of 35 councils and more than 1,300 seats. Reform picked up all 14 seats Labour defended in Tameside for the first time in almost 50 years, every one of the 20 seats in Wigan after more than 50 years of control, and left Labour holding only three of 16 in Salford. Reform also came second in the Welsh Parliament elections and joint second with Labour in Scotland. These results, described as a "seismic earthquake" by Reform's deputy leader Richard Tice, have rattled Labour's plans for an EU reset after their 2025 agreement to ease food and plant checks.

What's at stake

In 2025, Labour signed an agreement to ease food and plant checks and reduce red tape to boost cross-Channel trade with the EU, the UK's largest trading partner. Starmer's ministers emphasise that smoother trade relations are essential to lift the country's sluggish economic growth amid heightened global trade frictions, including the failure to secure a hoped-for US trade deal. They have discussed seeking improved access to the EU's single market.

Reform UK's gains undermine Britain's two-party system and invade traditional Labour heartlands that the party had shored up after Boris Johnson's 2019 Conservative wins. Labour lost control in areas like Sunderland and Barnsley to Reform, which also took seats from Conservatives in Suffolk and Essex. These electoral shifts place Starmer's party in a difficult position, with Reform mounting a challenge ahead of the 2029 general election and becoming top dog on the right of British politics.

The case for

Smoother and tighter trade relations with the EU boost sluggish economic growth, as the bloc remains the UK's largest trading partner. The 2025 agreement easing food and plant checks already reduces red tape to enhance cross-Channel trade, countering global frictions like the unmaterialised US deal. Seeking improved single market access delivers essential economic logic in a world demanding stronger European ties, lifting growth without awaiting distant alternatives.

The case against

Closer EU alignment risks greater peril by eroding Labour's traditional working-class heartlands to Reform, as seen in losses like Tameside after 50 years and Wigan's mining communities. It entails a loss of sovereignty, forcing Britain to become a "ruler-taker" rather than ruler-maker, echoing Brexit's core rationale. Pursuing a major reset gifts Reform ammunition, accelerating desertion of voters in areas Labour only recently reclaimed from 2019 Conservative gains.

Why it matters now

If Labour presses ahead with the EU reset, economic growth could accelerate through enhanced trade, but political losses to Reform may deepen ahead of the 2029 general election. If Labour opts for caution, sovereignty stays intact and heartland voters may be retained, though sluggish growth persists without EU gains. Starmer's initial instincts favour risking the reset despite the election shock.

Further reading

Politico · aljazeera.com

Have your say

This is a live referendum on Refnation. Cast your vote →

Want to follow more questions like this? Sign in or create an account.