How Holborn and St Pancras has changed

Four residents, 85 scored votes between them, and not one sits right of centre — the leaning histogram runs Hard Left, Left, Left, Centre Left, with nothing pulling the other way. That squares comfortably with who the seat elected: Sir Keir Starmer, whose own Commons record scores a clean Left (-37) across sixteen divisions, and who held the seat by a majority of 11,572 in 2024 against a Labour vote of 18,884 to the Conservatives' 2,776.

The straw poll splits Labour's way but not solely — two residents sit closest to Labour, one to the Liberal Democrats, one to the Green Party, suggesting the real contest here, such as it is, runs between the governing party and its left flank rather than against the right at all. What stands out more is the referendum record: on ZEV mandate reform, subsea cable investment, farm subsidies and deforestation due-diligence rules, this seat's voices returned 0% yes on every single question, against national majorities running from 67% to 79% yes. That is not scepticism, it is uniform rejection, four for four.

This is the first read of Holborn and St Pancras, so there is no prior balance to measure against — only a seat that starts out looking less like a marginal and more like a bastion, its politics elected safely Labour and its platform voices sitting further left still, in open disagreement with the country on question after question.

One more voice, especially anything right of centre, would immediately break this seat's unusual unanimity and reshape next week's picture.