REFNATION
ConstitutionNationalClosed · Final

Should Scotland become independent?

Yes 37%No 63%115 votes cast

Support for Scottish independence hovers around 45% in recent polls with little change since the 2014 referendum where voters rejected it by 55% to 45%. The Scottish Parliament has repeatedly called for powers to hold another vote but the UK Government continues to refuse. Ongoing disputes over Brexit, fiscal transfers from Westminster and North Sea energy revenues keep the issue alive.

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The rerun is almost eerie in its fidelity to the original. Twelve years after Scotland voted 55-45 to stay, this chamber landed on near-identical ground, with No beating Yes by a wide 26-point margin, suggesting that whatever Brexit, fiscal rows and North Sea revenues have done to the argument, they have not shifted the underlying balance of opinion much at all.

The generational pattern is the more interesting story than the topline. The 55-64s, old enough to remember both the 2014 vote and its promises of a "once in a generation" settlement, were the most hardened against a second attempt, while women in the chamber split down the middle even as men leaned decisively toward No — a gender gap that echoes the 2014 result itself, when women were likewise the more reluctant nationalists.

That this vote reproduces 2014 so closely, despite everything that has happened since — a Brexit Scotland didn't vote for, years of constitutional wrangling, a Westminster government still refusing a referendum — says something about how frozen this fault line has become. Neither side's arguments seem to be moving many people any more; they are simply reasserting positions dug in over a decade ago.

If there is a message here for Holyrood's repeated demands for indyref2, it's a sobering one: even those willing to vote on the question again aren't voting differently.

LeftCentreRight
  • B
    bob· 53
    The Guarded CollectivistCentre
    NO
  • The Consensus RealistRight
    NO
  • S
    shucky68· 244
    The Sealed-Border DisciplinarianRight
    NO
  • Chris· 299
    The Rail-Sceptic CollectivistHard Left
    NO
  • warden· 42
    The Worker's ConservativeRight
    YES
  • W
    warmana· 422
    The Order-Bound DissenterRight
    YES
  • The Public Ownership DissenterLeft
    YES
  • The Consensus LeftistLeft
    NO
  • The Hawk Who Doubts the WarRight
    NO
  • hr97· 365
    THE FORTRESS REDISTRIBUTORCentre Left
    NO
  • The KingmakerHard Left
    YES
  • Migano· 48
    The Left-Leaning PragmatistLeft
    YES
  • robvrn· 225
    The Accountable-State FirebrandLeft
    NO
  • The Unbending NewcomerRight
    NO
  • A
    The Green Constitutional RealistCentre Left
    YES
  • SarahJ· 42
    The Loyal LeftLeft
    YES
  • The Skeptical LeftistLeft
    YES
  • JM42· 46
    The Capability HardlinerRight
    YES
  • The Institutional RealistHard Right
    YES
  • PackerP· 40
    Centre Left
    NO
37%
Yes · 42 votes
63%
No · 73 votes
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