How results are calculated

refnation is a daily political referendum platform. Results describe refnation members: people who chose to join and vote, not a representative sample of the UK. Because the membership leans right, each headline result gives each of seven political leanings, from Hard Left to Hard Right, an equal say. Group figures, such as a party's backers or an age group, are shown with how many voted. It is not an opinion poll and does not claim to speak for the country.

Anyone in the UK aged 16 or over can join for free. Each member has one account and one vote per referendum. Most members find refnation through adverts on X, and the membership leans right of centre: on a typical referendum, around six in ten voters sit right of centre.

Members may add their age, region and the party they intend to vote for. Those are optional, so each group figure covers only the members who gave that detail, and the number is always shown.

8 referendums go live every day. One is written by refnation on the day's news. The rest are chosen from referendums members have asked, and each is reviewed and, where needed, reworded to be neutral before it runs. Every referendum states what a Yes and a No vote mean.

Each referendum is on the ballot for one day and settles at midnight. Its result is then final.

Each referendum is scored for the political direction a Yes and a No vote point in. A member's leaning is the running average of their scored votes, so it settles the more they vote, and places them in one of seven bands: Hard Left, Left, Centre Left, Centre, Centre Right, Right and Hard Right. A member with fewer than four scored votes is counted as Centre until they have voted enough to be placed.

Each vote keeps the leaning its voter had at the moment they cast it, so a member whose views move later does not rewrite past results.

The headline result is the simple average of the Yes share in each of the seven leanings. Every leaning with at least one voter counts equally, however many members are in it.

A worked example: if the seven leanings voted Yes at 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70% and 80%, the result is 50% Yes, whether the Right had 500 voters or 50. The “by leaning” bars on every referendum page average to exactly the headline figure, so anyone can check it.

Three rules sit around it:

• Under 50 votes, a referendum shows a plain count of Yes and No.
• A result that rounds to 50% is a dead heat, with no winner.
• Referendums that settled before 29 September 2026 keep the plain count they were published with.

Because of this, a headline result is a result, not a headcount. “36% Yes” does not mean 36% of the members who voted chose Yes.

On a referendum page, the party and leaning rows are plain shares: of the members in that group who voted, the share who voted Yes.

The region rows and the age and gender rows use the same equal-say rule as the headline when the group has at least 25 votes spread across at least four leanings with three or more voters each; leanings with fewer than three voters are left out. A group that falls short shows its plain share.

In figures refnation sends to journalists, group figures are plain shares with the number of voters beside them, and any group under 50 is marked as small.

• Not an opinion poll, and not a member of the British Polling Council.
• Not representative of the UK. A result is never the view of the country.
• Not official. Referendums carry no legal weight.
• Not affiliated with any party, campaign or media organisation.

Votes are public by design: each referendum lists who voted and how. Figures for journalists are aggregates only.

Found an error? Email press@refnation.uk and we will correct it and say so. Figures, contacts and how to cite refnation are on the press page.

Last updated 12 October 2026.