How far apart are each party's voters?

refnation members vote on eight referendums every day, so the same people answer hundreds of issues a month. Grouping them by the party they say they would vote for, we compared how often each pair of party groups lands on the same side.

Reform UK and Restore Britain backers are the closest pair. Across 237 referendums, their Yes shares were on average 5 points apart. They ended up on opposite sides of 14, and clearly opposite (one group at 55% or more, the other at 45% or less) on only 3.

Labour and Green backers sit further apart: an average gap of 12 points, opposite on 30 of 215 referendums and clearly opposite on 18. Labour and Conservative backers, for comparison, were 32 points apart on average.

The three referendums where they were clearly on opposite sides, then the next two widest gaps:

• The 8-a-day ballot referendums from 13 September to 12 October 2026, counted on 14 October.
• A member's party is the party they say they would vote for. Each group figure is the plain share of that group's votes that were Yes.
• A referendum counts for a pair only when both groups had enough voters: at least 100 for Reform UK and Restore Britain, 80 for Labour and the Conservatives, and 40 for the Greens. On average, about 180 Reform UK, 180 Restore Britain, 130 Labour, 130 Conservative and 57 Green backers voted on each.
• “Opposite sides” means one group above 50% Yes and the other below. “Clearly opposite” means 55% or more against 45% or less, so a referendum near 50% can't tip it.
• Members can change the party they back, so a recount can move by one or two: an earlier count gave 13 and 18 for the first two pairs. The average gaps did not move.
• Members choose to take part, so this describes refnation members, not the UK. The full method is on How results are calculated.

The full table, every referendum with each group's share and number of voters, is available on request: press@refnation.uk. More on the press page.