Is rejoining the EU worth an estimated £40 billion a year?
Foreign PolicyEnded 16 Oct

Is rejoining the EU worth an estimated £40 billion a year?

Yes 51%No 49%1,657 votes cast

The UK is outside the EU, its single market and its customs union. It trades with the EU under the 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said rejoining requires a referendum, and Labour's current commitments rule out the single market and customs union this parliament. Estimates of the cost of rejoining vary widely: a Bow Group report puts the gross contribution at £28bn-£41bn a year, with no rebate. The OBR puts the long-run Brexit hit to productivity at 4%, and some studies put it at 6-8% of GDP per person.

Jump to opinions· 124

A question about £40 billion turned, for the most-respected No voices, into a question about the 2016 result. Yes narrowly won, but the top-rated No arguments were about democracy rather than the bill.

That No case came in two forms. One was the terse “Undermining democracy is the most expensive mistake a Govt could make.” The other, equally respected, was a long complaint about Europhiliacs and an exit it called hobbled by establishment obstruction. Some No voters were former remainers: one wrote “I didn’t like the outcome of the referendum, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore it.”

The most-respected Yes cases were blunter and about outcomes. “Brexit failed,” said one, adding “It’s ok to say we got it wrong as a nation.” The other claimed the UK had lost “100bn a year for 6 years”. A more cautious Yes voter conceded the answer is an “absolute no” if rejoining means the Euro and Schengen, a worry No voters also raised.

The argument sits inside the long-running dispute over Brexit's economic record. One Yes voter suggested the obstacle is cultural, with identity built around Brexit, while No voters pointed to trade deals and an economy they said was outperforming France and Germany.

So the two sides priced the same thing in different currencies: one counted lost growth, the other counted sovereignty as priceless.

“Brexit failed. The state of the economy and standard of living proves it. It's ok to say we got it wrong as a nation. Time to rejoin.”

YES case · TrueHerald99 · 8 respects

“No. Give it up. Brexit was decided democratically, implemented, and Britain has moved on. Yet the usual suspects remain determined to drag us backwards. £40 billion is a contested estimate, not a guaranteed price tag, but surrendering legislative, monetary and border sovereignty is a very real consequence of rejoining. Trade with Europe, absolutely. Political subordination, absolutely not. Stop ob”

NO case · RAS · 12 respects

51%
Yes
majority
49% No
Votes1,657
Skipped37
You—

% voting yes, by leaning

95% yes among H. Left voters, 62 of them
94% yes among Left voters, 218 of them
82% yes among C. Left voters, 181 of them
54% yes among Centre voters, 208 of them
26% yes among C. Right voters, 235 of them
4% yes among Right voters, 627 of them
1% yes among H. Right voters, 145 of them
H. Left
Left
C. Left
Centre
C. Right
Right
H. Right
Cite this result

refnation referendum, closed 16 October 2026: “Is rejoining the EU worth an estimated £40 billion a year?” — Yes 51%, weighted by political leaning (1,657 votes).

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Debate

124 Opinions

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RAS· 272
The National Restorationist
Voted noRight lean

No. Give it up. Brexit was decided democratically, implemented, and Britain has moved on. Yet the usual suspects remain determined to drag us backwards. £40 billion is a contested estimate, not a guaranteed price tag, but surrendering legislative, monetary and border sovereignty is a very real consequence of rejoining. Trade with Europe, absolutely. Political subordination, absolutely not. Stop obsessing over reversing Brexit and concentrate on making Britain a success.

JohnnyBoy· 583
The Freeholder Insurgent
Voted noRight lean

I am heartily tired of Europhiliacs conspiring with EU against UK & continually whining about rejoining. It took > 40 years to partially exit this corrupt vampire entity because of corrupt MPs refusal to respect a clear vote & pro EU establishment using biased Supreme Court to hobble our exit. £40B is illusory, we already dodged £Billions of EU impositions & the terms of rejoining will be a vicious punishment beating on wheels. Reality is they hate but want to control us.

The Market-Led Borderkeeper
Voted noRight lean

Don’t be ridiculous, they chewed us over to leave and they’ll do it again. Their economies have tanked, we’d be fools to rejoin.

The Centre-Right Dissenter
Voted noRight lean

FZyi I voted remain but after what we have seen from EU over the last number if yrs & the mess EU is in, give me that vote again I'd vote STAY OUT OF EU EU is the ENEMY OF DEMOCRACY

The Welfare-Energy Counterweight
Voted noCentre lean

Undermining democracy is the most expensive mistake a Govt could make.

The Practical Moderate
Voted noCentre lean

I don’t think we should have left the EU, but now we’re out we shouldn’t go back in. I didn’t like the outcome of the referendum, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore it. We’d also never get back in on the terms we had when we left, and so that makes it far less attractive.

The Stalwart
Voted noRight lean

I wouldn't rejoin if they paid us 40 billion a year. It is a totally corrupt undemocratic evil cabal. The mask slipped during Covid, mandatory vaccination and also proposed quarantine camps for the unvaccinated which the Australians actually did!! I actually voted remain, but I thank god I lost!!!

The Hard-Border Constitutional Conservative
Voted noRight lean

Perhaps we get a government and establishment that actually delivers Brexit and then we get to see. As it is we have done better out of the EU than it's three biggest economies. Rejoining will be a painful, divisive process. And when it does not deliver then we revisit the question again. No. We had a choice. We made one. Now make it work

The Provision-and-Discipline Balance
Voted yesCentre lean

Brexit failed. The state of the economy and standard of living proves it. It's ok to say we got it wrong as a nation. Time to rejoin.

Sumo61· 374
The Disciplined Reformer
Voted noH. Right lean

The sloppy thinking from those voting yes is worrying. Our economy is outperforming France and Germany. Our trade deals with foreign countries are better than the deals negotiated by the EU.