Should the minimum wage rise to around £13.20 in the Budget, even if employers hire fewer people?
EmploymentEnded 28 Oct

Should the minimum wage rise to around £13.20 in the Budget, even if employers hire fewer people?

Yes 55%No 45%2,028 votes cast

The National Living Wage is £12.71 an hour for workers aged 21 and over, and has been since April 2026. The government asks the Low Pay Commission to keep it at two-thirds of median earnings. The Commission's central estimate for April 2027 is £13.18, and a rise to about £13.20 (around 3.9%) is expected to be announced at the Budget on 28 October 2026. Business groups warn that high employment costs are already curbing hiring, particularly for young people.

Jump to opinions· 110

A comfortable Yes win rested on one accusation: that a low wage floor is a subsidy to employers, paid for by everyone else. The most-respected Yes case put it flatly, saying the minimum wage was “just a way of letting employers pay poor wages”, with the taxpayer left to pay the extra.

Other Yes voters pressed the same point. One said “you do not have a viable business plan. You have a corporate welfare plan.” Another cited “empirical evidence from economics” that modest rises do not harm employment, and one dismissed the warnings as the same voices “crying wolf again”. A quieter Yes voter conceded that pricing people out of employment is a real danger.

The most-respected No case went the other way, arguing that if the market drives wages there will be “more competition for workers and wages will rise naturally”. Around it ran a more practical set of objections: one No voter said the same take-home gain could come from raising tax and NI thresholds, and another called rises “a placebo” because prices follow wages. Voters running small firms described layoffs and stalled hiring, and one pointed to youth unemployment already spiked by NI rises.

No voters were not all hostile in spirit. One called the question loaded but admitted “some sympathy for the rise”, and another said “This one was tough”. Yes voters, for their part, mostly answered the employment warning by doubting it rather than disproving it.

It is the argument over who should carry the cost of low pay, employers or the state, and each side kept returning to it.

“YES simply because a company should be able to pay a wage that enables an employee to live of it. Without requiring the public to top that wage up with tax payers funded benefits. The minimum wage is a con, it was just a way of letting employers pay poor wages & pocketing the extra profits, whilst leaving the tax payer to pay the extra. Sorry but if your business can't afford to pay its staff ”

YES case · Old_school_liberal · 9 respects

“If minimum wages are too high businesses will close down that is a fact. If we allow the market to drive the wages, there will be a growth of small businesses, more competition for workers and wages will rise naturally.”

NO case · GremeCW · 8 respects

55%
Yes
majority
45% No
Votes2,028
Skipped20
You—

% voting yes, by leaning

97% yes among H. Left voters, 89 of them
91% yes among Left voters, 223 of them
73% yes among C. Left voters, 212 of them
50% yes among Centre voters, 293 of them
40% yes among C. Right voters, 252 of them
21% yes among Right voters, 740 of them
10% yes among H. Right voters, 241 of them
H. Left
Left
C. Left
Centre
C. Right
Right
H. Right
Cite this result

refnation referendum, closed 27 October 2026: “Should the minimum wage rise to around £13.20 in the Budget, even if employers hire fewer people?” — Yes 55%, weighted by political leaning (2,028 votes).

Free to quote with a link to this page — Copy includes it.

Download the counts (CSV) — the votes behind this result, by leaning, party, region and age.

  • E
    Emjay· 27
    The Careful Balancer
    YES
  • BenH· 24
    The Contrasting-Instinct Voter
    NO
  • M
    The Centre-Right Holdout
    NO
  • B
    The Centre-Left Dissenter
    NO
  • The Early-Days Leftist
    YES
  • The Moderate Tory
    NO
  • ref· 16
    The Cautious Middle
    NO
  • D
    The Careful Balancer
    YES
  • BDC· 55
    The Social-State Egalitarian
    YES
  • Jhyl· 214
    The Market Traditionalist
    NO
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Debate

110 Opinions

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The Peacemaker
Voted yesC. Left lean

YES simply because a company should be able to pay a wage that enables an employee to live of it. Without requiring the public to top that wage up with tax payers funded benefits. The minimum wage is a con, it was just a way of letting employers pay poor wages & pocketing the extra profits, whilst leaving the tax payer to pay the extra. Sorry but if your business can't afford to pay its staff properly it's not a viable business & should therfore go out of busines

GremeCW· 38
The Early-Days Balancer
Voted noRight lean

If minimum wages are too high businesses will close down that is a fact. If we allow the market to drive the wages, there will be a growth of small businesses, more competition for workers and wages will rise naturally.

RoHa77· 131
The Market-First Pragmatist
Voted noRight lean

The problem starts with setting this at 2/3rds of median earnings. That is too high for a minimum. If you want businesses to create jobs we need to reflect what someone in a minimum wage role contributes. Otherwise you're essentially shutting people out of the labour market where they could build skills to move beyond minimum wage jobs.

The Centurion
Voted noRight lean

Minimum wage rises are a placebo. Wages rise, the cost of goods and services rise in line. No one is better off. Salaries may be higher but the cost of living will rise accordingly

Bearcage· 416
The Frugal Realist
Voted noRight lean

The same increase in take home pay could be achieved by raising Tax and NI thresholds, which wouldn’t impact employment numbers, so this must be considered first.

Clinx_83· 324
The Tax-and-Treatment Equilibrist
Voted noCentre lean

This one was tough. The large increases to NMW in the last few years has meant either low or no increases for those who are supervisors or junior managers. In some cases there is very little difference between a FT shop worker and a supervisor, there is no incentive to develop yourself. That being said, you should be able to do more than just survive working FT on NMW

The All-Rounder
Voted yesH. Left lean

Low wages means taxpayers pick up the bill for in work benefits, as people would struggle to survive without benefits. Employers should not be subsidised by tax payers, to make up for poor pay.

The Diplomat
Voted noRight lean

Absolutely not, this will destroy jobs and businesses. The focus should be on reducing tax to incentivise work and private investment.

Rob· 520
The Flag-and-Fitness Disciplinarian
Voted noRight lean

No if we keep rising the minimum wage there will be no small or medium size employers left. It is counterproductive when we are trying to get people off benefits.

BenL· 608
THE NANNY-STATE ALLERGIC
Voted noC. Left lean

Hate to say it but stacking another wage hike on top of recent employer NI increases is total economic suicide. Small businesses on high streets are already hanging on by a thread, and forcing a £13.20 rate just means firms will cut hours, stop hiring, or automate jobs away entirely... A 3.9% jump is large enough of a jump to not be just a negligible one.