Was Burnham correct in blaming Brexit for low growth?
EconomyEnded 2 Sept

Was Burnham correct in blaming Brexit for low growth?

Yes 42%No 58%580 votes cast

Prime Minister Andy Burnham stated in his first Commons address on 1 September 2026 that Brexit compounded earlier policy errors and ushered in a decade of low growth and stalled regeneration. Independent analyses, including from the Office for Budget Responsibility, Bank of England data and academic studies, estimate Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 4-8% relative to a remain scenario through lower trade with the EU, reduced investment and productivity. UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 2026 and 0.4% in Q2, but overall post-2016 performance lags counterfactual models, amid other shocks like the pandemic and energy price rises.

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Burnham’s attempt to put Brexit in the dock for a decade of weak growth met a clearer refusal than a clean acquittal: No won, 334 votes to 246. The striking feature was the room’s insistence on competing explanations, with even some opponents accepting that Brexit belonged somewhere in the indictment.

The floor’s most-respected No case argued that “Brexit has never been implemented properly”, shifting blame from departure itself to the politicians who negotiated and administered it. Other highly rated voices pointed to “lack of infrastructure, lack of housing and high electricity prices”, alongside debt, weak investment and policies associated with net zero.

Yes made a narrower, more defensible case than Burnham’s critics often allowed. Its strongest argument began, “Yes, but only partially”, while another voter called Brexit “an extra, self-inflicted wound” that added trade barriers to the pandemic and energy shocks. The two sides talked past each other: Yes argued from the gap with a Remain counterfactual; No demanded a verdict on what it saw as an unfinished policy.

That distinction sat behind much of the hostility. No voters repeatedly blamed Covid, austerity, taxes, immigration, regulation and energy costs, but one of the better-rated concessions said plainly that “Brexit has contributed to weaker economic growth”. The chamber was not denying every economic cost; it was resisting the idea that one political cause could carry responsibility for the whole decade.

The result leaves Burnham’s claim politically underpowered here, but not untouched: Brexit was treated as a contributor, not the culprit.

“yes he was because he facts don't lie. It has been proven that the economy has grown less than it would have done if not for Brexit. That is not to say it's by far the only reason, and this is not what Burnham is suggesting but he is correct to raise it. I am surprised by the Brexit-denialism in these results.”

YES case · JamesHutchcraft · 3 respects

“No. The reluctance to implement the decision to leave created too much uncertainty for investors.”

NO case · Welsh_Onion · 5 respects

58%
No
majority
42% Yes
Votes580
Skipped2
You—

% voting yes, by leaning

97% yes among H. Left voters, 37 of them
96% yes among Left voters, 84 of them
93% yes among C. Left voters, 71 of them
71% yes among Centre voters, 48 of them
33% yes among C. Right voters, 64 of them
5% yes among Right voters, 221 of them
0% yes among H. Right voters, 66 of them
H. Left
Left
C. Left
Centre
C. Right
Right
H. Right
Cite this result

refnation referendum, closed 2 September 2026: “Was Burnham correct in blaming Brexit for low growth?” — No 58% (580 votes).

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Debate

34 Opinions

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The Common Ground
Voted noC. Right lean

No. The reluctance to implement the decision to leave created too much uncertainty for investors.

James· 672
The Fortress Egalitarian
Voted noRight lean

Brexit has never been implemented properly so no its not to blame. The politicians who butchered what was wanted by the people voting Brexit are to blame.

PeterA48· 620
The Referendum Traditionalist
Voted noRight lean

Low growth in many cases is due to the costs involved in the push for Net Zero. This has pushed up the energy costs for everything and every company thus making the cost/benefit of investing in the UK the biggest obstruction, not to mention the increase in NI and minimum wages.

The Market-State Absolutist
Voted noC. Right lean

The causes for low growth in the UK are lack of infrastructure, lack of housing and high electricity prices and lack of investment, part of that lack of investment is because of the public sector borrowing so much that bond yields are competing with private investment. Brexit maybe causes some trade frictions but is massively overrated as a cause for low growth

The Civil-Liberties Internationalist
Voted yesLeft lean

yes he was because he facts don't lie. It has been proven that the economy has grown less than it would have done if not for Brexit. That is not to say it's by far the only reason, and this is not what Burnham is suggesting but he is correct to raise it. I am surprised by the Brexit-denialism in these results.

Bigden40· 594
The Unifier
Voted noRight lean

Low growth is principally due to the policies successive governments have followed - pretty much since Blair. Too much tax and spend, net zero policies, response to Covid, importing unskilled low cost labour and depressing real wages. Amazingly our anaemic growth outperforms the major EU economies so it ain’t Brexit to blame.

The Administrative Radical
Voted yesC. Left lean

Brexit reduced predicted economic growth due to trade barriers and leaving the EEC. It massively damaged the perception of this country globally, we are now often perceived as a more isolationist nation/unwilling to trade. Brexit has also amplified subsequent crises e.g. COVID-era labour shortages.

The Dissenter
Voted yesLeft lean

It appears to have started with Brexit, the UK didn't get the financial help from the EU that it had previously. It cost more to go abroad. The boats, they began with Brexit. After which we had Covid, money being wasted on things like on PPE that was useless. One problem after another, with mistakes made all the time. I'm also inclined to point out, austerity, with all the downsizing, done under a conservative government.

Hello· 194
The Managerial Nationalist
Voted noRight lean

Brexit is part of the reason for low growth but far from the only one. Mass immigration, high taxes, high regulation and high energy costs are bigger reasons.

BenL· 489
THE NANNY-STATE ALLERGIC
Voted yesC. Left lean

Well he's not wrong... you can't slap red tape and barriers between yourself and your biggest customer without choking growth. Global shocks like Covid and energy prices hurt everyone, but Brexit was an extra, self-inflicted wound that held back business investment and slowed wage growth.