Should England get a vote on independence from the UK?

For a question that reads like a thought experiment — English independence, of all things — the chamber treated it with surprising seriousness, splitting 42 to 41 in favour, a margin so thin it barely counts as a verdict at all. This was not a landslide dressed up as a debate; it was a genuine coin-flip on a subject Westminster has never had to legislate for because it has never needed to.

The age pattern is the real story. The 45-54s broke decisively for a Yes, eight to two, while the 25-34s went the other way by two to one — a rare instance of the usual generational script running backwards, with midlife voters more restless about the Union's finances than the young. Everyone else, from the youngest cohort's dead heat to the over-55s' near-standoff, simply couldn't make up its mind, and men split exactly down the middle while women tilted only faintly towards Yes.

It echoes a fault line that has been forming quietly since the Scottish independence debate first asked who subsidises whom in the Union: English resentment at footing the bill for devolved settlements, however constitutionally exotic the proposed remedy. There is no mechanism for such a vote and no sign one is coming, but the closeness here suggests the grievance behind it is more evenly held than either side would like to admit.

A question with no path to a ballot box still managed to produce a result too close to call.